11/26/2017 Total market view: "Most likely path is for the two indexes remaining under resistance to join the others above."
Result - the two indexes referenced, RUT/IWM and VTI, both moved above key resistance levels; IWM cleared YR1 and VTI joined SPX above YR2. Only NDX had trouble last week, falling under YR3.
USA main indexes continue to power up. As noted above, RUT/IWM cleared YR1 and VTI cleared YR2 last week; SPX/SPY and INDU/DIA already above YR2s. NDX/QQQ is the only main index having any trouble at resistance, falling back under YR3 last week.
Despite intraday spikes VIX and XIV remain fully risk-on, as the close is what counts.
Interestingly, this is not the case with global indexes as 7 of 8 that I track are below DecPs.
TLT YP will be an interesting level to watch next week. If we see more noise from safe havens - ie VIX above DecP, XIV below DecP and TLT above YP, then I'll think SPY top near Q4R3 and consolidation and more weakness in global names. Otherwise, Friday's massive comeback and huge hold of DecPs seems to invite more moves towards highs in the coming week.
PS - Just when I was about to give up the occasional short hedge and stick to safe haven longs, daily comment on 11/27 suggested re-hedging SMH and a hedge on FXI (both favorite longs from 8/21 area low). These two recs put some prior small dings in the rear view mirror as SMH fell -4% 2 days later, and FXI weak as well.
USA main indexes - QQQ YR3 level to watch, then SPY Q4R2.
Safe havens - TLT testing YP.
Global indexes - 7 of 8 suddenly below monthly pivots, the most widespread global weakness in quite some time.
New highs / new lows resolving in bullish fashion. One wonders when Bollinger bands will act as resistance
VALUATION & FUNDAMENTALS
Maintaining above 18X forward earnings.
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13 - QQQ high and TLT low
9/22 (+/-1) - stock index high 9/20 (miss)
9/26 - stock pullback low 9/25 (-1)
9/29 - non event
October dates (listed from 10/1)
10/6-9 - 10/9 mild pullback low
10/19 - pullback low
10/23-26 - 10/25 pullback low
11/13 mild (non event?)
11/19-20 risk off (mild pullback low 11/19)
11/22 risk on (markets up esp 11/21)
12/1 (pullback low)