10/8/2017 Total market view: "...All 5 USA indexes on major resistance levels, RSIs overbought across the board (Q, M, W and D charts for most USA indexes, excepting QQQ W & D and IWM W just about there), Bollinger band overthrows, and a more important timing date than many, I'm locking in some gains..." From Safe haven section: "TLT and GLD in places that usually would bounce."
QQQ and DIA bit higher, SPY and VTI about flat, IWM down. TLT and GLD bounced.
Similar conditions as last week - strong uptrends for USA indexes, but major pivot resistance in play across the board, RSIs overbought, weekly chart Bollinger band overthrows - and now with slowing momentum and some safe haven strength. The most likely move is some top and drop this week.
See USA main index section for key levels. The most important of these is INDU YR2. There have been many historical turns on Dow yearly levels - in fact, major trading turns every year since 2005.
But VIX and XIV continue to act unconcerned for risk, and all eight global indexes look that I track look especially strong. At this point I am thinking about a near term trading move and given the trend of this year probably not a major multi-month top.
Bottom line - I am still thinking of some trading turn here. How to play it really depends on your role type of trader or investor in the market. GLD or perhaps TLT so far were easier than trying to short stocks. If trying that idea, short hedges would be slightly under for DIA and QQQ, about at cost for SPY, and have some gains on IWM.
USA main indexes - pivot resistance levels in play are:
SPX/SPY testing Q4R1s 2556; if higher YR2 2576 not far.
NDX/QQQ lifting above 2HR1 6068 slightly; may tag its Q4R1.
INDU/DIA testing YR2 22937!
RUT/IWM fading a bit from YR1 1518 near test.
NYA & VTI both tagged Q4R1s and had mild reaction lower from there.
Safe havens - VIX and XIV still strong for risk assets but GLD, TLT, AGG and HYG all flashing some divergence warnings.
Sectors of note - XLE had huge rally from Q4S1 up to YP and 2HP area. While there wasn't any rejection it hasn't really gone higher. This could be on the watch list for shorts off the YP.
Global indexes - All 8 above all pivots. INDA had a shakeout that stopped on Q3P, then quickly recovered above all pivots.
Currency and commodity - Global indexes jumping again with $DXY weakness. Only traded above its Q4P for 5 days. Still above OctP for now.
New highs new lows still look great for stocks.
Post on Dow monthly chart RSI peaks - Only 10 years in the last ~100 had Dow RSI as high as now.
FUNDAMENTALS & VALUATION
Thomson Reuters P/E has tagged 18 all year but not above. Last week - 17.97. Another reasons pros might be selling into any rally this week.
Not screaming yet.
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13 - QQQ high and TLT low
9/22 (+/-1) - stock index high 9/20 (miss)
9/26 - stock pullback low 9/25 (-1)
9/29 - non event
October dates (listed from 10/1)
10/6-9 - 10/9 mild pullback low