I used to do a weekly post on oil and caught the low here. I am showing the original post right on 2/12 to prove that this wasn't just a hindsight fantasy. No rewind on data chart feed!
Oil had another 2 month rally from early April lows to 6/8-9 highs. After a choppy rest of June, July has been down hard. To my surprise, 2HP didn't even try to bounce.
If oil keeps dropping then stocks more likely to fade, and safe havens resume rally. Oil related vehicles like EWZ and RSX that have put in massive rallies this year should drop, as well as XLE. But if oil rebounds then USA stocks likely continue higher, safe havens maybe more in range, oil related obviously supported too.
For oil we can look at the current contract, but with the rollover I think CL1 continuous is really the definitive chart. We can also look at the ETF USO if we wanted to be thorough.
Weekly chart with long term levels here. The low was basically a slightly lower low / re-test on YS1 / 1HS1 combo. It rallied to YP / 1HP and after some shuffle went all the way - almost! - to 1HR1. Then fell back to support. YP has broken but I thought the 2HP would at least try to bounce somewhat but instead has caved barring a big rally today which seems unlikely.
Here's the daily chart view with medium term level pivots added. The high was on Q2R1 exact and the YP tried to bounce several times, but look at all those small blue bars (weak buying) before the breakdown.
Daily RSI is the lowest since February and as it turns out DL1 is bang on its daily 200MA here. This is a bad setup for a short, which is just late no matter how you slice it. In fact, the risk-reward here is to play for a bounce, but why waste time trying to buy something below all pivots? Focusing on buying what is above all pivots, as usual, has been the best strategy.