Last week sum: "Momentum move likely done or will be soon, but that doesn't mean the high is in. Just means market likely to slow down. A digestion week would be completely normal and healthy. If you are longs stocks then you don't want to see big rejection from SPX YR1 along with a big jump in safe havens. Until that happens better to stay long although the more things that check off on the top list the more likely the better decision is to take profits or hedge. Right now there are a few, and perhaps we are due for a minor pullback, but I don't think enough for a big position change."
Not bad eh?*
I'd rather see stocks go a bit higher so we can see the INDU set tag its YR1 along with XIV YP, daily chart RSIs reach 70 area, SPX tag its monthly Bollinger band, a bullish capitulation on the one sentiment holdout that isn't frothy yet.
If this plays out, then consider the items on my market top checklist.
Let's consider. Meetings the rest of the year are 7/26-27, 9/20-21 with a press conference, 11/1-2, 12/13-14. 11/2 is a non event due to election. I don't think Yellen wants to tighten screws advance of election, but if H wins and economy continues to show strength then she'll be clear to raise rates in December with the presser. If she wanted to play good cop bad cop with the market, she would be a bit more hawkish here, dovish in Sept, then see what happens at the election. But hawkish FOMC may not bother stocks - financials would improve, bonds drop, and market could take it as sign of confidence. This would be bullish USD, bearish GLD, potentially bullish stocks and bearish bonds, or at least this is my guestimate. All this FWIW, because there have been times I've thought she would hint at rate hike only to be a huge dove. Always a reason to not take the medicine.
USA main indexes
So far bullish action as SPX set halfway above its YR1s, and 3 others clearing Q3R1s which now can act as support. The big level ahead is the INDU set YR1 which could turn out to be as important, or at least nearly so, as YS1. Possible.
TLT & GLD still strong above all pivots. VIX and XIV giving all clear for stocks.
Global & other
EEM joined EWZ and RSX above its YP. 7/14+ was the first stretch for EEM to trade above its YP since 6/2015. EEM strength is bullish.
NKY, DAX and other European indexes the weaker links, but these indexes as well as benchmark EFA above 2HPs. So, more bullish than bearish.
CL1 broke its YP slightly but above its 2HP. Oil has had massive plunge and as long as it is above at least one long term pivot I'm not worried about it resuming.
2. Other technicals
On this kind of move we should see leaders reaching RSI overbought on the daily chart at least, and perhaps even a few times. Not yet.
3. Valuation & fundamentals
Fundamental improvements per Citigroup Economic Surprise index confirming breakout. I've been watching for this all year, as everyone else who uses this too.
Extremes reached on 3/4 indexes I track, increasing chances of a larger turn, correction or at least long sideways period.
5. Timing window
7/29-8/5 one of the stronger periods of the year and has been listed since end of June.
* Check tag for prior sums. I don't always have a strong opinion, but I've been doing pretty well.