TPP's market top checklist

Version 1.

1. Multiple major USA indexes at major resistance, then rejections?

So far SPX set pausing at YR1s, INDU YR1 is bit higher. Tech set, RUT / IWM and NYA are near Q3R1 but so far pause, not rejection.

2. RSI estreme reached? Negative divergence? Bollinger band divergence? (ie "other technicals)

USA quarterly SPX and INDU charts have been mostly overbought since 2013; in fact, you can call this "bull market." NDX chart entirely overbought, and still, during that time. So to sound alarm due to quarterly chart overbought means missing the entire move. What we don't want to see is divergence. INDU some possible to watch because bang on 70 here with divergence, but the bar has just begun and may move around before close. SPX is responding positively to RSI moving back to 70. 

All other timeframes - monthly, weekly, daily - are not yet overbought. Daily charts are not far off. 

Weekly charts have pushed outside Bollinger bands which is bullish, because usually we will see divergence before a major top. SPX monthly band is bit higher and starting to slope up which creates condition for pushing up the band. 

3. High tested with at least 1 lower high?

Nope (not on SPX or INDU).

4. Safe havens showing concern? 

Not really. Biggest drop in bonds in a year!

5. Breadth or volume divergence (adv / dec volume is my favorite)


6. Sentiment extremes reached?

Somewhat, yes. 2 of 4 of the meters I track. 
A) Daily put call back down at relative low levels for the past 18 months. Weekly has more to drop.
B) ISE has been toppy intraday but not yet on daily close. Probably one day soon we will see a very high reading and that will be part of an alarm.
C) AAII manager exposure jumped to 96 last week, the highest since February 2015. Keep in mind, if asset manager is sitting on cash with SPX new all time high he or she is probably out of a job. Still, once everyone is in then the momentum move is over.
D) AAII individuals - savvy bunch - staying largely neutral on this move, with 37% bulls reached last week. This is tied for the high of 2016, but still totally middling if you look at larger span of time. Again I'd like to see capitulation here and a significantly higher bull% combined with low bear% for a real market top. 

7. Timing window?

Yes, 7/13-15 listed from end of June. But I no longer have the considerable time it takes to do judgment of direction and importance on these. 

So given these, some pause possible - I expect dips to be bought. Safe havens coming down will be interesting to watch because this could change the theme of the year.