Prior week: "4 main indexes above long term levels, 1 fractionally above."
Last week: All 5 main USA indexes above long term pivots. Of these, SPX is already testing major resistance; INDU not far away.
It was a very fast move from the SPX YP to YR1 which was already tagged last week. If the market goes much higher then we'll be running into the same areas for the Dow set. So we are judging "reaction from resistance" and the market can do a number of things. If time permits I will write a separate blog post about this for easier reference. So far it looks more like pause than rejection but we'll assess this day by day and also watch other factors like other technicals, sentiment, etc.
The market has had a phenomenal move and some rest ie digestion or sideways week would be normal. SPX and INDU have just broken out of an 18 month range in the last 2 weeks and finally safe havens are really dropping. So maybe it we just see a minor pause in stocks then higher. The decision to lighten long exposure via taking profits or hedging will be a judgment day by day.
SPX / SPY / ES1 / ESU
Of these I think SPX is king. Very fast move from YP near exact up to YR1. This could be a big turn, but more likely is a pause area. It would also be common for the market to re-test the breakout area ie 2134 but if enough people are waiting for that it may not happen. So far SPX has approached resistance from underneath, with only a minor slowdown. SPY YR1 is a bit higher, due to influence of 8/24/15 spike on the pivots. ES1 YR1 was the high near exact, but it too shows minor selling more like pause so far. ESU looks more bullish already above YR1. So, 3 under resistance, only 1 above. This is "pause" but maybe we will see a bit more drop next week.
NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ1 / NQU
Tech is not leading this year, obviously. Weekly charts struggled to clear YPs but 3rd time the charm. If higher then 2HR1s to watch. Currently pause at Q3R1 on QQQ and both futures charts but not much selling pressure so far.
INDU / COMP / DIA / YM1 / YMU
Major resistance just above at INDU YR1 18727 then 2HR1 18914. Bullish for COMP to already be above its YR1. DIA and the futures all similar - above Q3R1s with YR1 area bit higher by a few hundred Dow points. If we had to pick just one index for the best signals this year it would be the Dow, so that means markets "should" go higher so we see INDU reach its YR1. Then we'll see what happens from there.
RUT / IWM / RJ1 / RJU
So finally RUT set joins the others above its YP in the last 2 weeks. IWM looks like pause at Q3R1 but the futures are slightly above, bullish so far.
NYA / VTI
NYA lifting above all pivots and not yet at major resistance; slight pause at Q3R1. VTI above 3QR1. Doing fine.