Safe havens

Sticking to format of TLT, GLD, VIX and XIV but if you really want to trade bonds seriously then we could potentially add TYX, TNX, ZB1, ZN1, ZBU, ZNU, and oh yes, Bunds. Similar for GLD and VIX. 

Funny, several analysts were calling for TNX 1% recently which reminded me of Apple calls for 1000 when it was at 700 in in 2012. We still haven't seen that level. They were thinking Bunds and JBs too are negative so just matter of time before USA 10 year goes down. They didn't consider that yields could go back to positive and then there would be a scramble to dump a guaranteed negatively yielding asset. Now, of course there are correlations but the entire bond drama will be interesting to watch.

For trading purposes the question is whether we just saw a TLT top more like 2008 or 2015, ie down from here, or 2011-12, which dropped a few weeks then immediately jumped back up to test the highs, had a slow drift down, held YP in 2012, then rallied to higher highs. Even then it was a slower drift down until May 2013 which finally pushed down from the 1HP and broke YP for a larger drop. Remember, TLT is still above all pivots so breaking a monthly would be the first step. A strong trend will often need 2 or 3 breaks for something to stick. 

It is rather glamorous to think we shorted the top tick, but let's be real, maybe it was and maybe it wasn't. There is a lot of support for TLT 133-136 and until that area breaks and looks like resistance then it could easily come bouncing back. 

TLT and GLD remain above all pivots, though just put in a trading high at least and possibly more important high at Q3R1s. They both have room to go lower before reaching support, but bounce likely from there. VIX giving all clear for stocks; XIV far from any level. 

That is a major league reversal bar with very high RSI. No long term levels tagged here, though we see see near YS2 in TNX and YR2s in both ZB1 and ZN1. The daily chart shows the resistance at Q3R1 near exact, within .02 according to my data feed :). 133-136 includes JulP, Q3P, YR1 which could be support, then 2HP. These are very unlikely to break especially on the first tag. 

Reversal bar, not on any long term pivot resistance. RSI extreme though. Daily chart shows high near Q3R1 like TLT. If lower then support at the Q3P which is also its JulP for the month. 

To me that VIX chart is a thing of beauty with clear holds of the YP at the trouble spots. As helpful as that has been, we probably won't see support at the stock tops. Just too low due to 8/24/2015 spike. So this means more emphasis on XIV and maybe VIX futures. Of course, we don't want to see a big move up like 6/7, but as long as VIX is below all pivots the trend gets benefit of doubt. 

Interestingly, XIV not yet above its YP! I'm not sure how this happens with VIX so low, but there you go. At least the last 2 weeks have been above 2HP. On the daily chart, last week I said would feel better about the rally with XIV above its Q3P and that happened on 7/7. Bit far in either direction to any level now.