Piper Jaffray vs TPP

Strategist at Piper Jaffray keeping to SPX 2350 call this morningTough timing for him today, but that's not the point here. Most of Wall Street would doubt this call too, since 2350 would assume a 5% jump in SPX earnings from here (up to 125 from current 118.50) and forward 12 month p/e near 19 (up from 17.5 now which already on the higher side of historical valuations). Both seem quite unlikely at this point; earnings estimates are usually revised lower as the year unfolds. 

But what I can say from The Pivotal Perspective is that using INDU data from 1925, this has never happened. This year has been historic, both in the January drop and Q1 recovery, so nothing can be entirely ruled out. But from 1925 to now, the market (meaning INDU index) has never traded to YS1 in the first half and reached YR2 by the end of the year - which is what his call implies on SPX. 

Of course, the reverse has occurred - from reaching YR2 and then down to YS1. Even that is rare, but it did happen twice: in 1929 and 1987. So basically he is calling for a similar type move this year in reverse. While we can still consider the possibility of a YR1 2163 target as long as SPX holds YP 2015, but I highly doubt we will see YR2 2282, let alone trade above it.