Two speculative maybe shorts

Last week I very gently hinted at an ES short near 1988 but it was more in a post called Thoughts on signals because 1) we didn't have a clear reversal yet and 2) not confirmed by VIX vehicles, which usually gives the best signals. 

Now, just because we have levels doesn't mean there is a trade or position adjustment. Taking entries anytime we are a level will drive you crazy. The important part is seeing the reaction from them and acting accordingly. This will mean you will have fewer incidences of buying *the low* or selling *the high* but a lot fewer trades with a much higher win ratio. Like I said the other post, if you are very active and want to pick turns better to do so watching very short term charts (15m, 1 hr, etc) on SPY and ES charts and incorporate daily and weekly pivots along with the other levels. 

So, this is why I wasn't just saying buy S1s anytime they tagged on USA indexes because you would have had a lot of stabs before finally getting a winner. The key difference was the confluence of several indexes making the same move and a very clear reversal 2/11-12. 

So if we apply the same idea on the short side, we should only short after a clear reversal. We may miss the move by some points, but again, far fewer entries. 

Anyway, keep an eye on ES today because under 1988 means Q1P rejection, FebR1 rejection, back under YP and 1HP. But anything above 1988 means long term support holding at that is bullish. 

Meanwhile, VIX made it down to 16 on Friday. This is fairly low although a far distance from 2015 lows of 10.88 and 12.80.  Measured by daily RSI it is quite low. Anyway, VIH6 may jump back above its FebS1 at at 19.01. So if you wanted to be long VIX that is the level to trade against and see what happens at the Q1P at 19.82, or if market continues its march up then we can watch next support 17.20.

12:45 EST update. So far indexes SPY & DIA holding above levels which is bullish. It would not take much for SPY to drop back below, but have to say DIA looks good here trying to lift above its YP; still under its Q1P though.