Thoughts on signals

Here's the ES daily chart. So after a huge breakdown there was a low on FebS1 (small green dots) near exact, recovery of YS1 (think green crosses), rally up to FebP which had some shuffle, then Q1S1 held as support twice, then we saw the FebP turn into support. The market made fast move up to the major resistance at the YP / HP combo at 1988.

Well, what to do here depends on what type of role you are playing, how easily you can get in and out, etc. If you were buying more DIA / SPY as FebPs cleared for the 2nd time in late Feb we might want to be reducing a bit here - especially if the market shows a real rejection. If it jumps above the level on Friday then we have an ideal long term hold situation. 

There is also a possible short setup and this is where your own style comes in. 

The feed shows the actual high at 1987.75 so with the level at 1988.50-75 a lmit order for a sell may not have triggered. If:

1. You are more in the bear camp, and
2. Like to be early, and
3. Skilled at managing risk

You could take a portion short here which is valid below 1988-89. 1989 also gets you the MarR1 resistance. A move neatly defined from FebS1 to MarR1? Yup, that could happen. 

The best signals in my view come with VIX confirmation which hasn't happened yet, and keep in mind the market may jump above the YP if decent employment news tomorrow. So this is the game of trading. Be early and have more quick cuts, or wait for clear reversals and have higher % wins. The clearer signals (like the INDU buy 2/12 and not 2/11) will probably not catch the absolute lows and highs. But as I have shown throughout this blog, it is more important to have most of your capital in the larger move; trying to catch tippy tops and bottoms all the time is recipe for headache. If you want to do that sort of thing then I think better to trade options on the SPY daily and weekly pivots.