Basic bull vs bear ideas

So as I pointed out in this post, USA leaders SPX / SPY / ES and INDU / DIA / YM have rallied back to their YP / 1HP pivot areas. Due to variances in pivot structure, there are slight differences in the levels. So far ES has come within 1 point of its YP / 1HP combo, while SPY is a full 1.00 below and SPX about 30 points. So this is the lower end of a key area for this asset class.

Likewise, both DIA and YM have tagged 1HPs, but the INDU cash was still about 80 points away. If higher then INDU will be the first cash index to reclaim its YP. 

The big cash levels are not to be ignored, and the key turns on 1/20 and 2/11-12 have had many of these in play. But the futures also are a tell especially if the pros see an extended market (like the FebS1 near exact on the 2/11 low), so let's watch ES 1988-89. 

Basic bull: ES clears 1988-89 as DIA gets above its 1HP then starts to test its YP area without much selling, or simply clears as we move to the cash index levels that are a bit higher. 

Basic bear: rejection starts anytime and down to MarPs to test those. 

Other: We could have an unclear move, like a small down bar that looks like a pause, or a weak lift through one or two levels but not convincing; and there sometimes there can be chop. Chop is the worst. 

So, if clearly bullish then we'd want to hold all the stock buys and asses as the higher end of resistance tests, and possibly reduce more on safe havens. If clearly bullish then opposite. 

It is likely that bull scenario would correspond with further drop in TLT, although not sure about GLD since that is holding up well. Basic bear would mean TLT up and likely GLD up too. 

Lastly, some of the sure thing setups come with an combo of index vehicle plus VIX. Then to be fancy on VIX we can also use and ETF and/or futures to see if they all agree. For now here's a simple VIX chart with all pivots. You can see QP held as support early January, and the YP was trying to hold as resistance in January. There was really one day with a close above the YP on 2/11, then recovery with a good reversal down and stocks have been rallying since. That is part of the reason why I recommended the DIA buy on 2/12. For now, back above the QP would be correspond with stock selling, or perhaps we will see VIX drop to its MarS1 and see a turn there.