TLT and GLD update

If following The Pivotal Perspective you avoided a lot of the damage in stocks, started buying back 1 day off the low; and made great gains in the safe havens. Since these were the only things in the universe above pivots they were screaming buys, and then even adds as they cleared YPs in later January (for TLT) and early February (for GLD).

Recently I was shuffling the add portions expecting a safe haven drop if stocks bounced further, which was right for TLT and not for GLD. Let's take a look.

Wait, you mean those red lines at the top were there before the move? YES. From the open on 1/4/2016 yearly resistance levels like all yearly pivots are fixed and in play. So 1HR2 at the tippy top, also resistance at YR1 red crosses; so now the big issue is if 1HR1 lower red dots holds as support especially on a weekly close. That level is 127.87.

Here's TLT D with med term levels. You can see TLT below the small orange dot from early March, that is the March pivot. TLT has been mostly above the monthly pivot (except a few days) from December. Maybe we will see the S1 area 126.33 which is just a bit lower than the 1HS1.

So, if in from early January I think at this point hold portion above this area, 126.33-127.87. Any recent reduction below the MarP could be put back on if stocks indexes fail their major pivot area and we want to rotate back to more defensive. But if stocks clear their YPs and hold as support, we will be reducing safe havens further.


GLD also lifted from 1HP then jumped above YP and was at its YR1 / 1HR2 at the next bar. 3 weeks pause under YR1 but no red yet - that's bullish. If YR1 can act as support then the door opens to 124 1HR3 and maybe YR2 near 134.

Here's GLD D with medium term levels. Unlike TLT, it is still well above MarP support and much easier to hold above that. 

Lastly GLD D with all levels; there was some selling from YR1 but it has kept coming back. So far any reduction an error but we can see what happens.