Comparing bear market rallies to today

Using the 5 main cash indexes, let's look at 2008 and then 2001-02. I'm doing this to add to context of "bull vs bear" idea first posted here.

2008 Sum
In 2008, NDX, INDU and NYA backtested and tagged YP and/or 1HPs and clearly failed very near the level. NDX alone exceeded YP slightly, but with 1HP just above and still resistance and never achieving YP "look of support." INDU and NYA crystal clear rejections at their YPs. So maybe this is an obvious point right now, in 2016, but 2 major indexes are above YPs so as long as this is the case we are not in a 2008 type of scenario.

Ultimate lows in 2008-09 were at SPX 2009 1HS1, INDU 2009 YS1, RTY YS1 near test, and NYA YS1 near test. 

2001-02 Sum
While SPX and NDX stayed completely below YP levels, INDU, RTY and NYA exceeded YPs for several weeks both in 2001 and in 2002. In 2002, the RTY was above its YP for the entire first half! But eventually all 5 did break down and go lower.

Ultimate lows were SPX 2002 2HS2, NDX 2002 YS1, INDU 2002 2HS2 break and recovery along with 2003 1HS1 near test, RTY 2002 YS2 near test, and NYA 2002 YS2 near exact. 

Main point for coming weeks
As much as we'd all like to know for certain, the market is unpredictable. For positioning purposes, the more main indexes above YPs the more bullish. If indexes fail at YPs then that will be clear and one can adjust the other way. Right now INDU and SPX remain above, NDX / COMPQ mixed and testing, NYA nearing a test, and RTY well below.

Obviously, if NDX holds YP as support and COMPQ joins above the YP, and NYA rallies at least above its 1HP and eventually clears its YP, then that will be 4 indexes above instead of 2. Conversely, NDX could fail leaving only INDU and SPX above, and NYA have clearer rejection. We'll see what happens. 

Keep in mind we've already seen YS1s on SPX, NDX, INDU, and NYA, and YS2 on RTY and there has been a tremendous recovery since then. 


SPX dropped to YS2, rallied back to near YP but didn't even tag, then crumbled. Eventual bottom near 2009 1HS1.

20160326 1 SPX W.png

NDX broke and recovered YS1, and rallied all the way back to YP / 1HP area. 2 weeks did close above YP but the 1HP was just above and stuck as resistance. 2nd time under the 2HP led to waterfall drop. COMPQ (not shown) remained completely below both YP and 1HP without even tagging the levels.

INDU also backtested its YP but failed bang on the level. INDU eventually bottomed on 2009 YS1 near exact. 

RTY did not even tag the YP on the rally. Breakdown of 2HP started the massive drop. 

NYA backtested YP and had clear rejection. 


Back to SPX for 2001-02 charts. SPX failed bang on YP & 1HP combo early in 2001, and stopped fractionally above the level without achieving "look of support" in March 2004 followed by a clear failure. 

NDX was leading the drop and stayed completely under YPs after breaking down in November 2000 until finally recovering in May 2003.

INDU W exceeded its YP both in 2001 and 2002. In 2001, after recovering its YS1 / 1HS1 combo, INDU rallied and then was above its YP for 6 weeks. 2 of those weeks were up, 1 was a pause, 1 down, 2 not much movement, then a breakdown. After backtesting the level from underneath and failing a larger drop followed. In 2002, INDU held 1HP support and stayed above the YP for 16 weeks (!) before eventually breaking down. 

RTY stayed completely under the YP with clear resistance in 2001, but also stayed above the YP / 1HP combo for the entire first half in 2002, breaking down only at the start of the second half. 

NYA also spent several weeks above its YP both in 2001 and 2002.