From last week: "Bullish scenario would be indexes continuing higher, with DIA leading above its MarR2, perhaps tech indexes playing catch up, and NYA clearing at least one long term level (it hasn't yet, see the USA main charts). Even if we get this, I'll be watching SPX / SPY / ES MarR2s for resistance. [...]
Due to RSIs across INDU and SPX vehicles, with big run up on FOMC meeting and option expiration week, with the leader INDU reaching MarR2, a pause is the more likely move. But fund managers are not nearly long enough and expect any pullback to be bought. Basically I am expecting some consolidation in the coming week."
So that was a pretty good take! SPX stopped just 2 points above its MarR2 of 2054 with a high of 2056 and faded back under. Strategy list had several "thinking out loud" ideas with TLT and VIX play as first choices, hold longs while short the weaker indexes with emphasis NKY, DAX and XLF, with some caution on IBB short due to VRX YS1 level. (Note: Probably better to stick to hedging USA longs with USA shorts and global longs with global shorts; EU and JPN really in their own categories.)
TLT was a matter of entry, VIX idea worked well, DAX in then nixed but down, NKY didn't really trigger, XLF worked, IBB was scram. I mentioned IWM in the list then opted against, but short term levels 3/23 gave the green light. . But the gold slam was a surprise, too bad.