Bullish scenario would be indexes continuing higher, with DIA leading above its MarR2, perhaps tech indexes playing catch up, and NYA clearing at least one long term level (it hasn't yet, see the USA main charts). Even if we get this, I'll be watching SPX / SPY / ES MarR2s for resistance.
Bearish version would be any reversal of status change from last week, most likely would be NDX back under its YP and NYA rejection from its 1HP, along with XLF below YP/1HP and IBB continuing lower.
Due to RSIs across INDU and SPX vehicles, with big run up on FOMC meeting and option expiration week, with the leader INDU reaching MarR2, a pause is the more likely move. But fund managers are not nearly long enough and expect any pullback to be bought. Basically I am expecting some consolidation in the coming week.
If mostly long via DIA, some SOXX, perhaps EEM and RSX left, maybe you took some gains on oil and EWZ already but could have runner portions, plus GLD and GDX then what? Keep in mind a nice trade on TLT with one great exit and one shabby exit and you might be out of that.
If consolidation idea is correct then choices would be:
1. Reduce on last adds and try to get in on pullback; ehh, DIA and SOXX charts look so good i think better to hold the winners and look to play weaker indexes or TLT or VIX.
2. While NDX and IWM remain weaker, and I suppose could be short possibilities if NDX drops under its YP again or IWM against its futures MarR2 (Fri high basically), I think better choices elsewhere.
3. I mentioned IBB and XLF (along with IWM and XLE) as short possibilities last week, and IBB did break under all pivots so depending on an entry 3/14 or 3/15 you might have gains on that. IBB may continue to drop into quarter end I suppose, but VRX reached its YS1 level 26.05. If that stops going down, IBB likely pops. If VRX below 26, then can still play IBB short. XLF is a candidate if drops back under YP 1HP combo both at 22.65 (barely cleared on Friday).
4. If stocks consolidate I like the idea of trying TLT if above its 1HR1 level 127.87 and next weekly pivot; possibly looking to buy VIX futs J6 either with a move from Q1S1 17.72 as support or if one more plunge then down to YS1 (!) 16.85 would be a good stab at speculative long.
5. Lastly indexes that look especially weak compared to the USA rally are: NKY, DAX, then Shanghai, FXI, PIN. EEM is a theme this year so probably FXI and PIN have more chance of playing catch up, so of these NKY looks the worst!
6. Just thinking out loud here to share process, of all these choices my top ones are TLT long, VIX fut spec long per levels listed, NKY and maybe DAX, then for USA probably XLF over IBB this week unless VRX breaks 26. In fact IBB only thing I see right now below all pivots (except VIX which is bullish) but if you wanted to play that entry was last week.
USA stock momentum is very strong and it would be rare to have a big drop start after such a move with a consolidation phase and high test, so I am just thinking of lightly playing this idea for about a week and then see where things are. Of course all suggestions with pivots only as triggers, ie, TLT above WP, VIX futs above Q1S1, if any shorts look for level rejections and indexes that are still under most pivots. Forget about shorting strength; we are holding strength on the long side.
GLD is an easy long term hold above its YR1 levels. GDX hasn't definitely cleared yet, but if gold stays strong GDX should continue to catch a bid.