USA main indexes

Last week 2 strong, 1 middling, 1 weaker, 1 TBD.

This week 2 strong, 1 middling, 1 weaker, 1 TBD -. (This means still TBD with a slight negative.)

NYA is a bit weaker than last week, because it clearly stalled at its 1HP level; but due to the smaller range selling bar, this doesn't look like rejection quite yet. Not much status change overall. 

To watch next week: most immediate is NDX YP at 4373, because breaking this would turn tech index group from "middling" to weak and join Russell group below long term levels. Then we are also watching NYA because any lower than last week's low will start to look more like rejection than pause. And on Friday new Q2Ps and of course AprPs are in play. 

Due to the rally and likely close it is quite possible that several indexes will be in quite mixed condition heading into Q2 - like RTY group could be below YP and HP but above Q2P and AprP. If so then there is no reason to jump in willy nilly. Soon enough there will be a very clear setup. If some cash on the sidelines then we are looking to put that to work on the best setup and also impacts the portfolio in the desired manner (ie more or less long risk, more or less long bonds, more or less long oil, gold, etc). Above 2 below 2 pivots not great setup; better when you get at least 3 on your side. Or as we did from 2/12 on, we can watch for recovery of monthly levels after the chance of a big turn which means YS1s holding too.  

SPX W chart still looks quite good with small red bar and holding long term levels as support. Bullish as long as that holds. SPY and ES similar, showing Q1P as support. All 3 variations above all pivots!

The resistance level on the high was a MarR2 reached on SPX nearly reached 3/21 and then tagged with a lower close on 3/22 (See second chart below.) Usually monthly levels are not enough for a major top, although current quarterly levels are far above. 

NDX barely holding YP 4373 so that is a level to watch in the coming week. COMPQ still under its YP, as is NQ. QQQ above - what? This is due to 8/24/2015 spike and discrepancy of futures to ETF pivots. It does look in play though, as does NQ YP. Pesky. Still, conclusion is tech is mixed / weaker compared to SPX and INDU. NDX breaking 4373, should that happen, would be bearish development as 3/4 main tech indexes failing at YPs.

These charts still quite healthy with INDU W small red bar in middle of tremendous up. Well above long term pivots. You will also note INDU and DIA held YS1 exact without breaking (current YM chart looks like break, but different on YM H contract at the time) and this was why I went with DIA on the long side 2/12. These continued to lead the other main USA indexes on the way up so easy choice for long adds.

While above YS1 / 1HS1 area, still lagging considerably behind the other USA indexes and not nearly close to reclaiming a long term pivot level. These may open above Q2Ps however, something to watch.

NYA W does have a red bar rejection from the 1HP which is some negative. However, it is smaller range than the last blue bar and so looks more like a pause than rejection at this point. VTI looks above long term levels - barely - but side with NYA here. Even if NYA comes back and exceeds the recent high (IF), it will be running into the YP.