Probably there was some selling on bonds / buying on rates heading into the FOMC, and now there has been a dovish surprise: from 4 hikes to 2 already and it is only March. Why not spare everyone the agony and just say .25% every December and then people can plan on 1% for the start of 2018? Oh well...
TLT broke a long term level that could have held as support for 2 days but then recovered. Still above yearly, half-year, quarterly pivots; only below a monthly this month, yet didn't even reach the MarS1, a sign of potential strength. Using MAs, there was a 1 day slight break of a nicely rising D50 and recovery. Depending on if stock indexes do with their yearly pivots (SPX, NDX) into the end of the week, TLT maybe worth again keeping in mind as a buy (if out) or a re-add if had reduced earlier this month below the MarP to put into stocks. Also, rate weakness TLT strength likely corresponds with XLF weakness so that remains on the list of short ideas. Another post on that soon.
TLT W chart below, and I cannot complain about the pivots as they have been an amazing tool for months. Just look at the 2015 high on 1HR2 and rejection under the YR1 and big drop from there all the way to 1HS1. After recovering the 2015 YP was clear support several times, the 2016 1HP clear support and launch, and now the 2016 high is bang on 1HR1/ YR1 combo. So if we have a mildly annoying slight break and now recovery of the 1HR1 level we just have to go with it.
Here's a daily view of long term levels - I am showing the extreme high volume selling on the high which was also a tag of 2 long term resistance levels. That was the place to reduce any later adds. The 1HR1 level (red dots in middle of range) broke for 2 days but now recovering.
Daily view of medium term levels, note resistance also near FebR1, then especially clear on MarP orange dots.
Now all together.
Here's a more typical daily chart. That still has a nicely rising D50 which cannot be said for several USA stock indexes. If stock indexes fade back under long term levels this likely corresponds with TLT moving up.