Weekly strategy review

From last week's post:

"Basic bullish scenario: these clear Q1Ps and regain status of above all pivots. This would likely coincide with TLT breaking its 1HR1, although not sure of impact on GLD. This would mean adding longs above pivot support and possibly reducing safe havens further. 

Bearish bearish: clear rejection, which would mean reducing longs especially some late entries, and possibly adding back on safe havens or stock shorts against the pivots. 

Or we could have a pause and shuffle around this large areas without a clear move. Hate to say it but think this will be most likely. Or 1 day rejection then a recovery or something like that. You can also use weekly pivots for an additional decision point as well."

As it turned out it was a combination of #1 and #3; a one day rejection on SPY / ES, but crucially not in DIA / YM, and not confirmed on VIX vehicles either; then a comeback, then a clear.

A couple daily posts gently suggesting maybe short setups looking at ES 1988, although the earlier idea did not trigger and VIX never confirmed this at all. Even if you shorted near the close on 3/8 at 1971 then the worst possible would have been without a stop judging daily bars and out Friday for -2%. You could have had a tighter stop and quicker out with any trade above 1988, and/or smaller position without any VIX confirmation.

And if you were shorting SPY / ES below its YP, then you should have been buying DIA / YM with clear holds of their YPs on Thursday.

The weekly pivot on SPY was also a good check. If you shorted near the close on 3/8, 3/9 was back above the WP from the start of the day; and then if you still held on for 3/10, there was only 1 bar fractionally below its WP with a recovery the next bar. 

Per the bullish resolution at the end of the week, you might have been reducing on TLT which broke its 1HR1, adding on any USA leader like DIA or SPY, and SOXX has been better than QQQ or IBB for tech exposure which is why I pointed that out on 3/1 as a way to add even more longs if the rally was continuing. Hopefully there is not a fake-out and shuffle but if you want to actively manage instead of plopping in a 60/40 or 70/30 and re-balancing once a quarter, then this is what is required.