Continuing weekly series on sentiment, which is a smaller part of my total market view that includes Technical, Fundamental, Timing and Sentiment categories.
2 significant extremes last week reached on ISEE and AAII individuals both helped the bounce, but these understandably improved this week. So sorry to say, no real edge to this report. Most readings are lower side without being an extreme; or a much milder extreme compared to last week. Whether market is free to go lower now that readings are off extremes, or bounce will go higher and participants are rightfully more optimistic, sentiment study cannot really say. I'll be watching the FebPs on the main USA indexes to decide.
Put-call weekly above 1.0 not nearly as high as last September, but high enough to arrange a option week rally it seems. It may be that asset managers still had stocks on first sudden drop last year, then lightened up in December so had fewer positions to protect in the new year.
Yet the daily view closer to relative lows. Mixed bag here so hard to have definite conclusion.
ISEE data from 2005
daily spikes: 2/4-2/9 were ALL below 75; 2/16 jumped to significant high which to me shows a bit too excessive optimism.
10MA 93% percentile, down from 98% last week. Still bearish extreme though.
20MA 89% percentile, down from 96% last week.
50MA 97% percentile.
ISEE coming off bearish extremes on all 4 levels reached in early February.
AAII manager data from 2006 2H
75% percentile, down from 83% last week; I would count 83% as lower side, but under 80, no real edge.
AAII investor data from 2005
bulls 89% percentile, down from 99% extreme last week.
bears 66% percentile, down from 92% extreme last week.
bull bear spread 80% percentile, down from 97% extreme last week.
8 week bull avg 99% percentile, just one up from absolute low reached last week
AAII investors also extremes across the board last week, improving this week.