Breadth

There are many ways to analyze strength in the market. Usually when the market advance is strong, it is a positive - meaning that higher highs with some sign of weakness is yet to come. 

With that idea in mind, here's the advance decline volume difference chart with a 10MA in blue. Note the recent spike up to 1000. This is a healthy advance, exceeded only twice in the last twelve months or so: early October 2015, which launched a terrific rally that peaked in early November; and early March 2016, which again took 4-6 weeks to top out. Several other rallies matched what we just saw: mid February 2016, part of the rally off the lows; mid April 2016, which was a key high; early July 2016, again preceding a strong rally.

So the only one of these at a top was the April 2016 peak, which itself was a lower high from March which was followed by obvious deterioration going back towards the zero line and under. 

The most likely thing here is higher index highs on weaker breadth, not an immediate top and drop. If sentiment meters get more toppy (see yesterday's post) we are more likely to see a shakeout and more digestion of recent gains, but I don't think the terrific Trump move is done just yet. 

We can also expand our view to the weekly chart. This shows how few real buyers there were before the election, as this trough was exceeded only a handful of times this decade: June 2010, May 2012, November 2012, August 2015 and January 2016. These were all major lows. I'll be watching that the 10MA can continue into positive territory.