I mentioned a few days ago that I would start to mention more short trade setups, anticipating continued volatility in markets. Let's review the winners & losers list as of 11/12. We are not going to pick tops here - that means we are not shorting strength. We want to be long strength and short weakness.
(Copying from the 11/12 post)
GLD - 2HP break! (still above YP, but below Q4P and NovP)
GDX - 2HP break! (still above YP, below Q4P & NovP)
CL1 - YP break! (still above 2HP; also note USO weaker below all pivots 11/1)
EFA - Below YP all year, below Q4P & NovP since 11/1 (still above 2HP)
FXI - 2nd break of Q4P 11/9 (still above 2HP)
EEM - YP break! (still above 2HP though)
INDA - YP resistance, 2HP break, below all pivots!
TLT - YP break, below all pivots!
In addition to pivot status we would like:
MACD or RSI setup (often MACD going our way, and avoid shorting when RSI is already oversold)
Moving averages with falling slope
Not on obvious support on a higher timeframe chart (weekly, monthly, quarterly)
With this in mind, GLD, GDX are late. Oil held pivot support and rallied. TLT is wayyy late for a short but fulfilled all setup criteria 9/30-10/3. INDA is quite late.
EFA, FXI, EEM are left. EEM is sitting on a rising D200 and while that may break we could have a battle around that area. In addition, weekly chart is on support. This leaves EFA and FXI.
Actually these are a bit late as well. Both were under Q4P with falling MAs as of 11/9, though EFA was sitting on a D200 and tough to take. FXI and EEM both were the clear choices as of 11/9. But if looking for something now -downtrend not on support, not oversold, weak bounce are the best candidates.
If we think markets will ultimately go higher, then we want to hold our USA longs. If we have some shakeout, weaker indexes will probably drop, so we can try to play this by some shorts.