Prior week: "Last week: SPX below Q4P and OctP, in addition to YR1 resistance pressure; Tech set mostly break of OctPs, still above others; INDU set like SPX, below Q4P & OctP; RUT slight break of Q4P and also below OctP; NYA/VTI both under Q4P as well."
Last week: SPX mostly below Q4P (but ESZ above, one of 4 varations), Tech set strong above all pivots with both futures holding OctP on daily close on the lows; INDU set also below Q4P yet holding OctS1; RUT set trying to hold Q4P on Friday's close (futures look better, cash and ETF fractional close above the level; NYA/VTI both below Q4P yet VTI not far from another attempt to clear.
A bit better from last week as leader Tech is in a stronger position above all pivots and RUT set held Q4P on Friday's close. SPX set, INDU set and NYA/VTI remain below Q4Ps, but as at least one variation of each held some variation of OctS1s on lows.
Per the bullish developments in Tech and small caps, and positive divergences on daily charts on SPY, DIA, and VTI, it looks like recovery attempt of the these Q4Ps is the next move. Yet OctPs and falling MAs on those charts remain resistance. If the next move up fails to recover Q4Ps then there is room to return back down.
All charts: Cash indexes weekly with long term levels only, then daily charts with long & medium term pivots; ES1 contract more technicals like Bollinger bands and MAs, and lastly ESZ contract pivots only (no support / resistance) with MAs to see entries & positioning especially clearly).
SPX / SPY / ES1 / ESZ
SPX continues to trade below the 2nd drop from YR1. How far this drop goes is hard to tell. The level remains resistance until the end of the year or if can turn into support.
SPY shows Friday's low on OctS1 and healthy recovery, yet resistance on the Q4P since 10/12.
ES1 low of month also on OctS1 and though stuck under Q4P and falling MAs looks like it could try again to clear.
ESZ contract the one of 4 variations above its Q4P and rising D100 MA. OctP and falling 50MA both remain resistance.
Basically this is mixed action - we cannot ignore the drop from YR1 and medium term weakness below both Q4P and OctP, but so far damage limited to OctS1 (and not the Q4S1 at 2096).
NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ1 / NQZ
Both weekly Tech charts doing fine and seems like they should reach YR1 area.
QQQ closed below OctP for 3 trading days then recovered.
Futures held OctP throughout on daily close (even 10/13 by 1 point).
Tech returned to market leader in 2016 2H. The leader has basically recovered (or held in case of futures) all pivots. Usually it is bullish when the leader holds.
INDU / COMP / DIA / YM1 / YMZ
Weekly charts continue drop from YR1 - INDU a bit shy, COMP a bit above then back under, but basically that is high of year like YS1 was the low of the year.
DIA mostly under monthly pivots in September and October but has held SepS2 and now SepS1 on lows.
YM1 contract shows building bullish divergence on lows per Bollinger band (first low and close outside band, next low outside band but close within, recent low and close entirely within band). This could recover and bounce to Q4P again, clear and bounce to D50MA and upper band, or break down to Q4S1 at 17683 (futs).
RUT / IWM / RJ1 / RJD
RUT hitting YR1 was part of my upside limited scenario from August - which has turned out exactly right. I just didn't think after a move all the way from YS2 it would blast through YR1 so easily.
IWM held Q4P.
Both futures also holding Q4P and rising D100 to boot.
Futures look good, but ETF and cash don't quite have the look of support yet. Still this is worth watching as a buy setup - any higher on Monday and all 4 variations will look like lift from Q4P and hold of rising D100MA. The only thing missing from this setup is a long term level involved as well.
NYA / VTI (different but both broad indexes)
No long term level on NYA highs, but 9/8 high on SepR1 and then 9/22 key lower high on Q3R1 show this index worth watching.
VTI high of year on YR1 as well with no weekly close above.
VTI also came back Friday and looks like it may try to recover Q4P. Still heading into falling MAs and OctP however.