Last week: "TLT below 2HP is first long term trend weakness we have seen since end of 2015. GLD also testing 2HP and not much bounce thus far. Importantly for anyone holding stock longs, VIX jumped above Q4P & OctP combo on 10/11, same day as SPY / DIA / VTI Q4P break, thereby confirming the move. That was a good reduce longs / hedge signal and in play until we see something else, which could mean pivot recovery with VIX back under those levels, or a deeper stock drop to higher VIX levels that act as resistance ie Q4R1."
Review - VIX dropped back under Q4P & OctP combo but without much movement from stock indexes. VIX tends to be right on the market so this adds to bullish picture.
Both TLT and GLD turning very well on pivots with high of year on Q3R1 and recent low on 2HP. Both back above rising D200 suggest bounce, but both also heading into sharply falling 20MA. If we are due for a long term trend change in bonds as I expect, it would be historically normal to see some chop around long term levels ie 2HP before another definitive move lower. Even if bounce plays out, both of these remain under Q4P and OctP so I think better longs are elsewhere. Combination of daily RSI oversold, daily 200MAs, weekly chart Bollinger bands, and 2HP were better partial short cover areas for those who followed Q4 TLT and GLD weakness idea with shorts.
VIX and XIV very healthy for stocks right now, and VIX tends to be right on the market.
All charts: weekly long term levels only, daily charts with long & medium term, then 1 daily tech indicators chart with the works.
Trying to bounce and may recover 2HP. YR1 the next level to watch.
Daily charts look also suggest some bounce, especially with recovery of rising D200MA. Still resistance at falling 20MA and YR1 however.
Recent low exact on the 2HP (with high of year on Q3R1 as well).
While this also suggests chance of bounce like TLT from rising D200MA, it will be heading into other pivot resistance and sharply falling 20MA.
Bounce possible but upside limited.
GDX (for kicks)
Also held 2HP on low and back above rising D200 as well. Handling falling 20MA well so far.
VIX looks fine here and saying buy stocks 10/19-21, dropping below all pivots. But not too low yet, so a sweet spot for stock bounce.
Looks great, just 1 day bit below OctP that also held Q4P and 2HR1. Next day back above all pivots with 2 days to buy near the level, then as of 10/18 above all rising MAs, above all pivots, MACD cross to +, recent higher low - there is just nothing wrong with this picture.