Ah, the bounce that I’ve been expecting from SPX and RUT MPs finally happened today. But is everything in the clear?
Let’s run down the USA mains:
SPX: Held MP so above all pivots, recaptured HR1 - bullish
NDX: Bounced from D50MA, still below MP - bullish but needs to clear MP and still in key resistance area of MP, HR1 and YR2
RUT: Bounced from MP but looking weak; above all long and medium term pivots, but still below WP as I type
DJI: Bounced from near test of MP, still under HR1 high
NYA: Fractional close above MP, bullish
VIX: Close on MP, bullish for risk to be down but basically testing MP
VXX: Clear MP rejection, bullish
So ball is in bull’s court but both NDX and RUT ideally perk up a bit more, along with VIX moving below its MP, to be certain of a move back to highs or higher.
The market is at an interesting point. Initially I thought NDX would not clear its YR2 on first try, then it did, but quickly failed. Now with any more rally it may test again. It is only because I have seen major market turns on yearly levels (2009 stock low, 2016 February low, 2016 bond yield low, etc etc etc) that I am paying attention to this one. Quarterly NDX RSI is above 90. If pros wanted to lighten up on tech this is exactly where they would do it.
SPX and NDX below.