2/6/2018

First a pre-market tweet: "Since vol extended past 2/2, think instability in general through 2/15, & 2/9 looking like key date. With YPs along with D200MAs testing and holding on both ES and YM near term move most likely furious bounce that then fails and sets up lower or divergence lows into 2/9."

So today we saw the furious bounce, and the open was a good place to cover some short hedges and/or volatility plays. I think there is too much going on for a pure V low and race back to highs; however, there were some notable major level holds in the last 24 hours. Also, whatever asset class stays positive YTD has an edge over what doesn't. 

SPY 1HP massive hold, plus D100MA; ES YP and D200MA tested after hours
QQQ D100MA, plus Q1P after hours
DIA 1HP near test, plus Q1P and D100MA; YM YP and D200MA tested after hours
RUT/IWM bounced big from YP and D200MA
NYA 1HP and Q1P big hold, VTI 1HP hold

So that is a fair number of YPs and 1HP testing and holding. But due to structure of lows outside Bollinger bands, we may need a test of sorts before a better rally. VIX is just not confirming the rally yet. 

XIV is dead; long live VIX. VIX while lower is not really given a buy signal. What we want to see is a small advance inside daily Bollinger bands and under YR3. Until then, caution.

Now, the leaders - what is closest to reclaiming status of above all pivots?

XBI, FXI, RSX, EWZ, USO - these are the buy list. 

SPY, ES and VIX below.