2/5/2018

Wow. I must say the acceleration down was faster and sharper than I thought was likely over the weekend. The latest Total market view post was thinking S1s for most USA mains and Q1P for IWM, and a decent bounce after 4-7% drop. Most major indexes are already down 7-8% and significantly lower after hours as I type.

SPY near Q1 tag, substantially lower after hours, ES(1) con't contract testing YP
QQQ FebS1 break, NQ(1) con't contract testing Q1P
DIA Q1P test, YM(1) contract testing YP
IWM YP near testing
NYA Q1P slight break, VTI Q1P test

But if you had any thoughts of buying, VIX explosion higher and XIV break under all pivots both said no way!

This is the fastest move from YR1s to YPs (on the futures) that i can recall. Maybe I lost some readers when sounding cautious last year with SPX & INDU YR2 tests that just melted up, but have to tell you, feels great to have made significant long exits on 1/29, add a UVXY hedge, and further reduce longs and add UVXY on 2/1 (for the record, i did cut the UVXY add on 2/2 - oh well). 

If you followed these recommendations you should be up despite the bloodbath because UVXY has moved so much and is poised for a massive move up tomorrow. 

PS: Many indexes negative YTD!!

SPY, VIX and XIV below.

5 22 XIV.png