4/19/2017

Ugh. Bounce seems to have failed and markets hanging by a thread. On Monday I said judgment call on how long to go, and I erred on the higher side - now looking like indeed error. Not mistake after election or early January 2017 fwiw.

Odd day - TLT and GLD down, VIX up. XLF down despite TLT move, IWM up despite most indexes red.

+s
SPY & VTI holding Q2Ps, barely

-s
DIA, IWM and NYA Q2P rejections
VIX another lift above Q2P
XIV Q2P break
EEM 2017 leader AprP break
EWZ, FXI Q2P, SHComp rejections
RSX 1HP break
oil

?s
QQQ almost (!) back above all pivots - could have, but didn't. 
GLD Q2R1 rejection, but held monthly level as support
TLT gave back gains, but above level too

Lastly, above all pivots list keeps thinning:

risk
INDA (that's it! - of what I track)

safe havens
GLD
AGG, barely
CIU
LQD
HYG, barely
HYS
(a selection of key diverse bond ETFs)

Pivots are going to make this decision easy. DIA below Q2P, cut both. EWZ Q2P rejection, cut. Portfolio back to 70% long which may be too high.

SPY has held Q2P 5 of last six trading days. The one day that broke was Thursday before long weekend with N Korea nuclear noise. But only 2 of those days that held were encouraging. It feels like there could be a flush. My system prevents me from exiting directly above support, but I am prepared to quickly cut if indexes and safe havens agree on Thursday. An active individual investor could have near expiry puts; a fund could be ready to trade the other way with ES under 2329. 

SPY, DIA and VIX below.