2/25/2016

From yesterday: "...if we see SPY maintain above its FebP, ES above 1925 and SPX above 1930 (cash index not yet) then that will be bullish. ... As of yesterday I went mostly back to bear playbook from the bounce idea, but the market may force the bounce plan yet again. If so then way to do it is reduce on full safe haven positions if they show rejections from major resistance and put into the USA leaders DIA and SPY that are above the FebPs (obviously, only if that is the case). Or accept the chop and cut any shorts from 2/23."

So clear score for the bulls today with SPY / ES / SPX all lifting above its FebP (again) and some stall at major resistance in the safe havens. Let's say you were on the bear playbook and shorting (not just big TLT long) and came into today like this:

5 TLT
4 GLD / 1 GDX (or 5 GLD)
3 FXI shorts, 1 QQQ short, 1 XLF short for 5 total
3 DIA longs
1 BTCUSD long
1 flat

This is total of 75% safe havens or short, 15% long, 5% uncorrelated and 5% flat. It is just not that hard to shift to a much less bearish portfolio with a few simple changes.

Cut recent USA shorts and put into DIA / SPY as suggested. Perhaps even reduce FXI short by 1 with ACWI poking above its FebP again too. 
Reduce TLT and GLD (basically the add portions) by 2 each. Then just a question of how much to add long.

3 TLT
3 GLD
2 FXI shorts
3 DIA longs + 2 DIA added today + 3 SPY longs also added, holding above FebP for now then MarP to judge
1 BTCUSD long, uncorrelated
DXY / EUR idea from the blog today did not trigger
so we have 40% safe havens or short, 40% long, 5% uncorrelated and 3 units or 15% cash. 

Cannot be too bearish with SPY and DIA above the FebPs and right now on track to open above the MarchPs. If or when they do break, it will be back to bear playbook ie cut longs and pile back into shorts and safe havens.