Two of the three bond ETFs I track, TLT and AGG, made definitive moves last week under YPs. This can be the start of something big so I wanted to look at bonds more thoroughly, and that means TYX TNX and somewhat ZB and ZN.
TYX is the holdout; still under its 2HP and D200MA. Both cont futures contracts already betting on move UP in rates.
As we know anything can happen and no crystal ball but with TNX above 2.33 and AGG below 109.46, it seems that there is potential for major move UP in rates / down in bond ETFs which would likely juice financials. If this is going to happen then TYX needs to clear 2.90-91.
W: Back up to W200MA and top of W BB; finding support from 10MA and 20MA. Pretty clear resistance; the question is what happens if TYX starts to rally above that level.
W: Interesting - hold of YP yet stuck on 2HP. Only 2 weeks above 2HP, rest below. Above would be significant change in status if holds on weekly close.
D: There is the 2HP test in daily detail, with D200MA just above with slope starting to flatten out. MACD not 100% reliable but not - going on a buy. 20MA and 50MAs are curling up; and D200MA already worked as resistance once in Q4. Again?
ZN: Already decided - bearish. Q4P clear resistance then rejection. Fractionally under all pivots with second D200MA break this quarter. Also note high of year on YP exact!
W: Above MAs and pushing up. 61% Fib resistance in play.
W: Above 2HP.
D: Lifting from D200MA.
ZN: More definitively below 2HP and 200MA rejection.
TNX: Technically stronger than TYX and already making a move above 2HP and above D200MA.