Total market view

4/22/2018: "Stocks mixed, bonds weak, commodities up. This is a simple take but I suspect these themes are more likely to continue than not."

Result: Stocks mixed, bonds went lower (though rebounded and finished positive), oil tested near highs but didn't do much. 

USA main indexes continue to hold long term uptrends. All 5 are above YPs, HPs and D200MAs. There have been several threatening chances to break down, but indexes keep holding on tests of these levels. At the same time, resistance levels keep getting sold - last week saw a big drop from SPY and QQQ QP area. Markets rallied back, and while QQQ was on fire for a few days, it didn't finish strongly with a big drop from HR1 and D50 MA area and could not maintain status of above all pivots.

VIX and VXX look like they are on the side of stocks. If this is true then well see QQQ launch from its QP and SPY clear its QP as well. But if QQQ fails again at its QP I'd expect trouble on the way. So simple agreement between SPY and QQQ is what I am watching for in the coming week.

All the world seems bearish bonds - The Pivotal Perspective has been firmly in this camp since the beginning of the year. While I would still avoid corporates and high yield, the more safe haven trades TLT and AGG may have put in decent lows last week - TLT low test near QS1 and nearly recovering YS1 HS2 combo. AGG reached near YS2. While the widely watched TNX (ten year) did reach above 3.00% the move quickly reversed, and the granddaddy TYX did not make a new high compared to February. If bond rally (yield drop) is for real, then we'll see TNX below 2.93 and then below its new May pivot; correspondingly, TLT above its YS1 and then above its May pivot. 

Time limits me from a comprehensive market review each week, but I did start talking cryptos in the mid April: "After crypto bloodbath for several months BTC looks poised to reclaim MP and ETH needs just a nudge to recapture its YP - should this happen, a significant development." ETH continued up over 30% above its YP since then, but as much of the rally was from lower levels (up nearly 100% from 4/2 low), combined with a top near its QP and falling D100MA, makes me think the move might be done for now. 

Bottom line - If SPY joins QQQ above its QP then probably it is a "go with" move. But if QQQ drop under its QP to join SPY back in medium term down trends, that also is a "go with" move. Due to crowded bond shorts I may also look at the bond long idea as mentioned above. 

USA mains - Only IWM above all pivots. DIA and SPY both below QP and MP. QQQ still below MP as well.

Sectors - SMH and XBI remain below QPs. 

Global developed - EFA above all pivots (one of the few things I track in that category), but EWG and EWJ both under QPs. 

Global emerging - SHComp trying to hold YS1 but below all pivots all days except 1 since 3/23. FXI, EEM and KWEB doing better, still above long term support, but below QP and MP. 

Safe havens - VXX and VIX caught the stock turn last week with both reversing from MPs near exact. GLD fell under its QP last week, while GDX chopped a bit and finished above so not sure about metals. See comments above for TLT pivots.

Currencies - Is the DXY rally over already? Not sure. Above Q2P was a buy as mentioned but move stopped cold at falling D200MA along with MR level. 

Commodities - Oil has had a great year and we may still see USO on HR2 or YR2 for the real top. But CLM contract ddid reach HR2 twice so oil may be in a need of a rest. As it turns out ags are jumping with DBA lifting above D200MA and HP. If it can reclaim YP then rally should be on.

New high and new low indicator back to bullish on 4/13 but since then not much progress in USA equities. 

Recent drop to low P/E levels helping keep bid under market. 

Put-call dropping back into neutral zone.

April dates
4/2 - USA main index low, date listed per 3/18 Total market view
4/13 (mild)
4/18 - so far stock high
4/23 - 4/24 close low, 4/25 price low slight miss

Why do I quietly persist in this timing project? Because of 4 dates listed for April (from the end of March!) 

  • one was the low of the month across the board for USA stock indexes, and same date TLT high
  • the date listed as mild was mostly non event, perhaps a small pullback low on SPY and other stocks
  • 4/18 was the high of the month for stocks
  • 4/23 slight miss, 4/24 close low 2 weeks with 4/25 slightly lower lows

Not bad eh? 

May dates
5/6 (could be 5/4 session or 5/6 globex)
5/11 for currencies esp
5/15-16 area looks important change of character