4/7/2013 Total market view: "While some indexes appeared to be more hopeful on the bull side on 4/4 (SPY test and hold 1HP and rising D200MA), the inability to clear QP and MP (Q2P and AprP), along with falling D20 and D50MAs, invited selling. In other words, many indexes are in mixed fashion (above some levels, below others). As long as this continues better to stay on sidelines or continue to short resistance as this seems to be the easiest play in 2018 thus far. One could also go with current pivotal leader GLD although even this seems to have been hopeful a few times this year only to fade near top of range."
Result was Friday decline from SPY and DIA QPs. Gold soared only to give quite a lot back very quickly.
Environment continues mixed, but with some pivot improvements compared to last week. Mixed for risk indexes primarily means above YP and HP but below QP and MP. The translation of this is long term uptrend intact, medium term trend weaker. How will this resolve?
I have stated many times that there are often definitive moves near the ends of quarters or beginning of new ones as big institutions shift their allocations. This time was a bit harder to spot, but the fact is 4/2 key retest lows across USA mains and some sectors as well as a VIX and TLT high.
Sentiment was quite bearish at the 4/2 low, with put-call far above the 2/9 area. Valuations in the form of SPX forward P/E have moved significantly lower. Lastly, the new high new low indicators is again (for the 3rd time this year) turning back bullish. With the pivot improvements last week I think the edge has shifted back to the bulls - however, SPY DIA and QQQ remain below Q2Ps so those are the levels to watch. Any moves above QPs are likely buys.
Lastly, after crypto bloodbath for several months BTC looks poised to reclaim MP and ETH needs just a nudge to recapture its YP - should this happen, a significant development.
USA main indexes - High of last week on SPY Q2P near exact; low near 1HP. IWM above all pivots, and NYA above MP (still below QP).
Sectors - XLE catching up to oil with move from below all pivots 4/2 to above MP 4/5, then above HP 4/10 then above all pivots 4/11. XBI had strong rebound from HP test.
Global developed - EFA above all pivots. EWJ and EWG not quite there.
Global emerging - SHComp below all pivots for all trading days since 3/23 except 1. ACWI, FXI, KWEB, EWZ, INDA all below QPs. RSX slammed last week from slightly above all to below all in 2 days.
Safe havens - VIX sharply lower last week as stocks dropped is an interesting move. Either VIX wrong or stocks will try for the Q2Ps again soon. VXX also lower for the week with YP rejection (bullish for stocks) and MP break. A bearish environment for risk would have had VXX above its YP or at least holding above its MP. GLD also maintaining above all pivots with with fairly sharp rejection from HR1.
Commodities - USO among pivotal strength leader on 4/9 (above all including WP and DP, only missing MP) jumped the next day and now above its YR1! The only asset class I am tracking with this status. Also helps the XLE idea if you spotted that.
Currencies - DXY below all pivots but since March a few times to have this status without much drop. Cryptos on the move and look setup for rally especially if BTCUSD can reclaim MP and ETHUSD above its YP.
Last two weeks saw tag and hold of:
SPY weekly 50MA and lower BB near exact
DIA weekly BB, close enough
IWM weekly BB and near weekly 50MA
NYA similar, 50MA and near BB
New high new low indicator again shifting bullish. 3rd time in 2018 the charm?
Forward P/E has dropped enough to attract institutional attention. This will help keep a bid under the market.
4/4 high on 10 day put-call MA highest since election. Fairly classic sentiment move to have significantly more bearish sentiment on the re-test low.
4/2 (so far USA main index low, date listed per 3/18 Total market view)
4/18 (change from last week from 4/17; this date likely bearish for risk & bullish for safe havens)