Abbreviated Thanksgiving version - one post only, no charts.
11/18/2017 Total market view: "If no decline Monday or Tuesday I'll start thinking a low volume rally above more possible Wednesday and Friday."
Result - Indexes continued higher for the week with most highs on Friday.
Over the last few weeks, most USA main indexes have cleared major resistance:
SPX/SPY launched above YR2 (last week)
NDX/QQQ lifted above YR3 (also last week)
INDU/DIA cleared YR2 with no trouble (mid Oct)
NYA fell back under 2HR1 and NovP for several trading days, then recovered (last week)
At this point main indexes below resistance are:
RUT/IWM still under YR1
VTI testing YR1
Most likely path is for the two indexes remaining under resistance to join the others above. That said some reaction after holiday buying could easily happen.
Bottom line - Trends are up and most recent hedging ideas have cost a bit (SPY short, SMH short, 1 GLD long chopped) though keep in mind that UVXY gained somewhat, IWM & EWZ shorts worked, and EEM nearly break-even. However, I find it odd that indexes are so strong with both TLT and GLD above all pivots. Rather than reduce exposure on indexes or try the short hedges it seems to make sense to simply add to these safe havens.
USA main indexes - QQQ lifting above YR3 is bullish. IWM testing YR1 and VTI testing YR2.
Safe havens - New all time low on VIX 11/24 seems valid as price reported from CBOE. Interesting that it was near NovS1 and 2HS1 tag; reaching long term support is very rare for VIX. Other safe havens TLT and GLD are a bit stronger than stock indexes would suggest.
Global indexes - Other than EWZ, all global indexes that I track above all pivots.
Currency - $DXY back under all pivots as of 11/22 will help global indexes and metals.
Minimal index damage compared to what new high & new low chart seemed to suggest.
Thomson Reuters forward P/E dropped under 18 after spending the last 5 weeks above. The 10 week moving average of 18X is still well under price.
Standard put-call turned out interesting tell over the past few weeks, at relative highs (not lows), indicating disbelief of rally and expectation of drop.
As it turned out, 7 dates provided for August. 2 were the high and low of the month. 2 were the second high and second low of the month. 2 were milder turns. 1 was non event.
9/4-5 - 9/4 mild pullback low
9/13 - QQQ high and TLT low
9/22 (+/-1) - stock index high 9/20 (miss)
9/26 - stock pullback low 9/25 (-1)
9/29 - non event
October dates (listed from 10/1)
10/6-9 - 10/9 mild pullback low
10/19 - pullback low
10/23-26 - 10/25 pullback low
11/13 mild (non event?)
11/19-20 risk off (mild pullback low 11/19)
11/22 risk on (markets up esp 11/21)