Valuation and fundamentals

Thomson Reuters SPX 12 month forward p/e: 17.15, down from 17.20 last week as SPX is higher. 17x area possible support currently 2163, if we see 17.5x then current target 2227.

Take a close look at that chart. So valuation reached a high late 2014 it appears, maybe early 2015. Before that the only years higher were 1997-2002, and obviously 2000-02 with valuations coming down was not a time to be holding stock longs. 

This fits exactly with my idea of E-wave W5 euphoria stage on the monthly chart. The market will frustrate the "disciplined" investors, the theorists, Wall St "experts" who pretend to know where SPX is going and repeat their targeting exercise year after year with authority yet so infrequently get it correct. 

I think we can see 18x-20x forward earnings in this latter stage, but not has high as the late 1990s when new technology was so completely changing everything. 

That is a very wide range but currently - and this could increase over time if earnings estimates improve - 18x to 20x is 2291-2545. As it turns out this lines up with my E-wave ideal target zone of 2250-2500 achieved 2017 Q2 to 2018 Q2. 


Citigroup Economic Surprise Index took a dip on GDP (which is entirely backward looking btw!) but still holding the big jump above the zero line. Interestingly, in very recent weeks Yardeni has added a comparison of this indicator to 10 week change in bps on TNX, and right now is one of the widest discrepancies from 2003. If you look at the detailed charts of 2003-2009, then 2010-current, you will see bond yields lead on the way down and the surprise index leads on the way up. Of course no one knows what the markets will do but right now this is pointing to a rise in yields, or to put in another way, the TLT top is in.