Wow - in the last week or so, the smartest guy in the room and mostly bond guy stock bear Gundlach; Wall Street's biggest perma-bull Tom Lee; and the masters of the house Goldman Sachs have all agreed. Next move for stock is down!
Gundlach says sell everything; Tom Lee says 'August scares us' and points to a tactical move to sell end of July and buy back in SPX 2100; Goldman says underweight equities for 3 months. And just in, adding after the fact, Goldman's chief equities strategist now sounding alarm for -10% drop.
Now I don't trust Goldman one bit, but this line up of top strategists is quite rare.
Even I (like most market participants I suppose) have been wondering about a top, hence my 3 recent market top checklists. So far, though some elements of a top exist, none have delivered a clear Yes, a top, and so take profits or hedge.
SPX has reached YR1 area, and INDU nearly so - top possible. But no rejections yet, none at all! VIX / XIV both clear right now - not to worry!
Sentiment has reached extremes, and so far the market has handled this with a Dow pullback and Tech melt up.
Daily chart RSI has reached overbought (OB) near enough on Dow at the highs enough for a mild drop to follow; and on NDX, so far ignored; quarterly chart Dow some concern. Other than these, RSIs plenty of room to go up on weekly and monthly charts.
Valuation doesn't seem to matter (it will, at some point - but that could be 2017).
Fundamentals were jumping in July until the GDP report; but here's the thing, that was for Q2, which is rear view mirror.
Timing window here, even I thought this area strong enough for major turn. This does bug me a bit, because I too thought it would be stock high & safe haven low.
And yet - SPX and Dow have just broken out of an 18 month range. NDX is approaching its 2000 high with confidence. After the 7/1 to 7/6 drop, SPX pullbacks have been about 15 points, and ES with overnight action has been 20-25 points. These are all massively bullish points.
Lastly, we are just recently seeing some weakness in TLT (ie below a monthly pivot) after a huge rally and then close lower high for the months of June and July.
Maybe, just maybe, stocks will continue sideways or up. We could have a pullback in the weaker indexes so that would mean Japan, China, Europe, as USA stays strong. Of course oil is now an issue below all pivots as well. But with Tech looking about to blast off and bonds finally a bit weaker, maybe the market will leave everyone waiting to buy a dip in the dust.
Long and strong with VIX below all pivots and XIV above its YP I say. If we see VIX jump above its AugP with the look of support, take a hedging trade. This will protect from longs as early as 6/27-28 then a the huge buy area of 7/6 when just about everything in USA was screaming buy as TLT and GLD were making a top. If you didn't get in there, and waited for the SPX 2134 breakout, then you aren't really following these methods.
I realize the big guys have to make decisions in advance of technicals, or at least don't have the flexibility that individual traders and small hedge funds do who would benefit most from my type of work. But c'mon, SPX finally clears 2134 and NDX going for new all time highs and you are going to sell out already? Please.