Prior week: 2 main indexes above long term levels; 2 testing; 1 rejection
This week: 2 main indexes above long term levels; 2 breaks; 1 rejection.
So the Tech set (NDX, COMPQ, NQ) and NYA institutional index both broke their YP / 1HPs last week. Long term levels breaking is a big deal, especially since it will be the 2nd or 3rd time this year depending on the index. This is the kind of thing that happens at the end of long term trends or before a definitive move. However, the leaders on this rally have been INDU first and then SPX, so I will refrain from using the term "bear market" until the leaders break down too.
I believe this is the proper perspective, as it kept you on the right side of the market from 2009 Q2 all the way to 1/7/2016 excepting 2 days in 2011. To put it another way, if the leaders hold major levels in crisis points then the bull market is alive.
That said, it is also proper to be a lot less long USA stocks with only 2 of 5 above long term levels and all below JunPs. If wanting to throw on shorts, IWM was the easy choice among USA mains, although if including others IBB has been below all pivots since 6/10.
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SPX / SPY / ES
SPX looks like it will test its YP. The current ES contract is already nearly there, while SPY level is lower. The discrepancies are mostly due to the 8/24/2015 spike low on SPY, and the look-back period of the futures. This is a bit pesky as ES could break while still be above on cash and SPY, so this is why i analyze all these variants and total them all together for the real larger trend. The red line on SPY chart also shows the 2015 close (ie down for the year below that line).
NDX / COMPQ / QQQ / NQ
Ugh, 3rd real YP break of the year. That's bearish. While anything can happen, ie maybe it will recover, for now NDX, COMPQ and NQ are below all pivots (just below the Q2Ps). QQQ is sitting on its YP (again discrepancy here due to 8/24/2015 spike low).
INDU / COMP / DIA / YM
COMP giving great signals here with the clear closer test high below 1HR1 early in June. Of the main indexes, INDU has been the leader this year so as long as the leader is above its YP then we cannot call it a bear market. To put it another way, bulls have a shot with the INDU above its YP. It is hard to know how much to weight that YM YR1 since the other variations are quite far from their respective levels.
RUT / IWM / TF
There is the YP rejection on RUT. The weekly chart makes it look an easier move to catch than it was. IWM was slightly above the YP for the 2nd time this year on Thursday, then slammed on Friday.
NYA / VTI
2nd break of NYA long term levels this year. VTI still above. Both have given good signals this year. NYA while bearish doesn't quite yet have the "look of rejection" like RUT / IWM.