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Sentiment has correctly improved considerably off the price lows and extreme readings reached in February. Put-call has moved up from low area which seems to indicate a lot of hedging and skepticism on the most recent push up in April, but it was an extreme low reading reached shortly before that. AAII managers are not yet at extreme readings historically but came in at the highest exposure in about a year. Also AAII investors had an extreme low reading of bears. So given these three together, I think there is same warning for the market. It may not be "the top" but perhaps this points to recent highs as potentially more important than pivots would currently indicate.
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Put-Call daily reached a low extreme 3/14-24 with the lowest reading near 3/18. This is shown by the red line which is also the area of several other key highs in the market. But since then it has jumped while price has gone higher. This 'should be' quite bullish as there is already quite a lot of skepticism and fear. Also as of last week I thought very low put-call would increase chance of option expiration related drop, and now that is really not a factor.
Put-Call weekly also near low areas of past 1.5 years, but not historical extremes. Still, after 2014 second half is QE unwind and FOMC rate hike fear market.
No spikes and all MAs still very low end which indicates more put-buying. I'm not sure how to reconcile this with the standard put-call data above. ISEE is trying to capture pure sentiment plays and not pro hedging.
Down to 32% percentile. This has moved quite a lot. Near the weeks of the lows this year it reached 83-90% percentile, a full bearish extreme as of 2/3/2016. While 32% has room to move up it is the highest reading since 4/22/2015, nearly a year!
Bulls still 72% percentile, plenty of room to move up
Bears 6% percentile, extreme reading. This means of all data from 2005, this is extreme low (ie lowest 10th percentile) reading of bears.
Bull bear spread 34% percentile, room to move up.
Bull 8 week avg still 85% percentile, up from the absolute lows reached in February but still on lower end.
There is one warning flag here and that is very low number of bears.