ETF: % move from 2015 close, % reaction, current
TLT: 12.2% rally, -5.9% pullback, now +9.6% and pushing towards the highs!
GLD: 20.6% rally, -5.8% pullback, now 15.8% pretty good gains!
DIA: -11.3% drop, 15.2% rally, now +1.2% on the year.
IWM: -16.8% drop, +18.9% rally!, still -3.2% on the year.
VIX: 76.2% rally, -59.5% drop, still -15.5% on the year.
The point is the comparison between the stock rally and VIX slam with how firm both safe haven ideas have been. TLT rallied impressively, and GLD was even stronger, and both suffered only minor pullbacks while stocks had quite decent rallies of their own. DIA +15% and IWM +19% not shabby!
But safe havens stayed firm. This is odd and something should go one way or the other. Safe havens should drop more and stocks maintain gains, or safe havens stay strong and stocks have more of a pullback on their recent advance. This would likely coincide with a lift in VIX.
I thought the institutional re-balance move (I did say these were tricky, I try to guess and am often wrong - maybe some institutional player can clue me in here) was to take profits on TLT and GLD, but instead we are seeing profit taking in some of the hot emerging market names along with oil, TLT bid, and a slam in other developed market indexes like NKY and DAX.