On 2/11-12 when INDU and RTY were holding their YS1 and YS2 respectively, but below all other pivots, I noticed that EWZ was actually above a FebP as of 2/12 and a few others like RSX and EEM looked like they could easily jump above their FebPs.
This was very much the right idea, but when the market shuffled in late February I did say cut longs, and when added back didn't stick to the emerging market idea. This was partially based on ACWI (which is a broad based world index that I sometimes use to confirm ideas like NYA for USA indexes) falling back under its FebP.
But I am doing a few posts a day in free time, and some other basics would have kept in the trade or triggered re-entry. EWZ held its weekly pivots throughout the drop (not one hourly bar close below since 2/16), a reason to stay in. Or, if reducing an idea, and that idea is based on long above a monthly pivot, and that idea still is valid, feel free to get back in :) I am also not opposed to complementing the pivot technique with other tools. Probably some basic moving averages can help confirm or deny a setup sometimes, especially with slope of the the MAs.
The other thing I wanted to point out today is that EWZ actually the first to recover a Q1P, although it as of pre-market it is still below its 1HP and YP. I think this is the first risk stock ETF to clear its Q1P.
Someone definitely knew something was going on the last few days as there is big news today about former president Lula. OK, here is your efficient market hypothesis... yes the markets reflect all known information, but both that information and perceptions about it are both in a constant state of flux, as is price, and technical tools will show this. If you were buying the news you came in today. And forget about fundamentals, those are still horrible. If you were buying pivots you were nibbling on Brazil in mid Feb. I just messed up the hold and/or re-entry.
I am posting now in pre-market but as I type it will gap up another +6% on top of 7% yesterday. Wow!
Here's the hourly chart above the weekly pivot (orange crosses) from 2/16 on.
Lastly here is a more standard view with simple MAs (10, 20, 50, 100, 200) and BBs. The red line is last years low. OK the rising 20MA in orange did work for a nice hold here if buying, and/or when 50MA held as support. The other momentum / trend tools below (tweaked MACD, momentum, RSI) were all more positive from early February as well at a time when USA indexes were all still negative. The jump back above last year's low also helped the pop with a massive failed breakdown which has led to a massive squeeze.