I recommended TLT on 1/6 when it jumped above pivots and then said add further if YP acted as support which was 1/22+. The first exit was nailed on 2/11, but then I said hold above the 1HR1 level which got shaken out and probably I should have used a zone of that long term level plus a medium term level.
A recent play on TLT I said quick in and out but not sure the out was correct. I thought to move money into what was moving best and that meant stock indexes but this is still quite a decent trend. Near term will be watching relation to and any move from Q2 and AprPs that will be in play from 4/1.
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TLT went from 2015 high very near 1HR2, all the way down to 1HS1; then up to 2016 high at 1HR2 / YR1 combo. Current it is holding 1HR1 as support. The long term level range is that 1HR1 up to high area at YR1 / 1HR2.
Here is the daily chart with the same levels to see how active they were. I am not showing the quarterly and monthly pivots since they change over on 4/1. For the huge rally in stocks, TLT has held up quite well.
Some interesting BB divergence on the highs. Previous highs were outside the BB, this one entirely inside. But decent advance with strong rising MAs and markets can ignore divergence and continue higher. Near term I am wondering about a re-balancing drop in TLT.
This M chart just doesn't look too bad. Small red bar that held the open area. To me looks more like pause than reversal. Nicely rising MAs too.