3 days left in Q1 so an interesting time to check quarterly and monthly charts. For today let's check the USA mains and I'll try to include others of interest (TLT, GLD, oil, emerging markets) in the next few days.
On all charts:
Standard Bollinger bands and simple moving averages
10MA = light blue
20MA = orange
50MA = purple
200MA = black
SPY Q chart bullish but possible RSI divergence, M chart better above 20MA
QQQ bullish with resistance at 2000 quarterly close high, Q chart RSI still overbought!
DIA looks best (and not just saying that due to earlier buys; already nicely above M chart 20MA and RSIs more room to move up)
IWM Q chart does not look bad, M chart some question
NYA Q chart could be stronger, overall better above 2007 close high, M chart congested
SPY Q chart held low areas of 2014 Q2, 2014 Q4, and 2015 Q3 which looks good for a move to the top of the range at least. Also holding a nicely rising 10MA as support, in fact 1 close near the level and otherwise above on close. All this looks bullish.
But the concern here is the clear divergence on RSI. RSI was 75.5 on the 2014 Q4 bar and 75.7 on the 2015 Q1 quarterly close high. 2015 Q4 was 69 for the clear lower high and with 3 trading days to go it is 68.6. Will RSI rocket to overbought territory again, or will there be sellers into any further strength? Something to keep in mind in the weeks ahead. I'm not sure how many SPY points it would take to get RSI from 68.6 to 70, but it isn't that much.
SPY M chart reached RSI 50 buy area on the lows and currently testing its 20MA. Very simple, in addition to the pivots we like to consider, it is more bullish above that level but bearish if the bounce stops here. See May 2008 for a bearish example, and July 2010, November and December 2011, June 2012 for several bullish examples.
QQQ is holding a sharply rising 10MA as support but fell back under the 2000 quarterly close high. Note this level has been resistance for 4 quarters of the last 5. Bulls have a shot, but stronger above that level. Quarterly RSI still overbought but trending lower.
QQQ M chart broke the 20MA but bottomed on the lower Bollinger band twice. More bullish above the 20MA.
DIA Q chart nearly tested its 20MA twice. RSI only 66 which has more room to move up. This chart looks pretty good.
DIA M is above its 20MA and that is another reason to hold the longs that were purchased below that level.
IWM Q chart looks pretty good too, holding its rising 20MA and RSI near uptrend buy area at 56. If lower then 2007 & 2011-12 high areas along with 50MA next big support area.
IWM M chart back above rising 50MA, but lows that far outside the BB may have to test.
NYA Q chart is holding the 20MA but would look better with a higher close than last quarter. Possible resistance at the 2007 close high area.
NYA M chart in congestion zone between rising 50MA and falling 20MA.