Valuation and fundamentals

Thomson Reuters reports the SPX 12 month forward P/E at 17.2, which is a slight uptick from last week. The 10MAs continue to rise, with 17.5x forward earnings up to 2285 from 2278 last week. 

This site has consistently maintained that I expect to see 18x-20x forward earnings for a real bull market euphoria high. Currently, 18x 10MA is 2350 and 20x 10MA is 2612. These may continue to increase, but for now this is my target range which is an admittedly wide +3.9% to +15.4% upside from current levels on SPX. 


Fundamentals as shown by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index stalled a bit but still in decently positive territory. 

My take on these is moderate positive for markets. Valuation is "up there" but "should" go higher in this phase of the market. Fundamentals are fine. The ideal move would be higher (note previous highs up closer to 100 on that index) and then a fade that stays mostly above the zero line. A rapid return to negative territory, especially as FOMC talks hikes, would be different.