Have to say - bearish moves across the board today:

SPX QR rejection
NDX YR2 could not clear - level is resistance
DJI YR1 rejection
RUT MP rejection and YR2 break
NYA continues drop from QR top and MR (SepR) rejection

VIX YP launch, although stopped at MP

In addition, safe haven strength with TLT launch from HS1.

These are the kind of days that can kick off significant moves. Especially when you consider that 3 of 5 USA mains are testing yearlies (NDX YR2 and RUT YR2, DJI YR1) along with VIX YP.

Yet somehow I am not as bearish as I perhaps should be. Ordinarily this kind of action would call for major risk reduction / hedge. Were there any positives?

NDX held above all pivots on close
CL also above all pivots
A lot of rising moving average lines on daily charts

But really it is this - I’ve seen enough rallies into FOMC 2:00 pm, down after the announcement, and recovery the next day. So maybe I am viewing all this bearish action that took place 2:30 - 4 with a bit of suspicion.

Let’s be clear, I am only partially long. But I’m not pounding table bearish as I ordinarily would be given all 5 USA main index bearish action and VIX confirmation. Hopefully this is the correct assessment. For now watching NQ after hours to see if it can rally above its new DP. If we see follow through to this bearish action on Thursday then that will indeed be concerning.

All 5 USA mains and VIX below.

26 8 VIX D.png