4/4/2017

Markets seem mixed with both positive and negative clues. While I would give the slight edge to risk assets based on QQQ, VIX & XIV, it is still a tough call. Things could change tomorrow, but this is how The Pivotal Perspective tallies things:

-s
SPY, DIA and NYA/VTI below monthly pivots for the first time since November; opens door to test monthly S1s
IWM below Q2P; ie, a main USA index below quarterly pivot
XLF, very popular trade for 2017, also below Q2P
GLD, safe haven asset, above all pivots
TLT, safe haven asset, above quarterly pivot first time since 2016 Q3

+s
2017 USA main index leader QQQ remains above all pivots - key!*
SPY, DIA, NYA/VTI holding Q2Ps
VIX clear rejection from Q2P / AprP combo
XIV clear hold of AprP
All global indexes that I track - ACWI EEM FXI SHCOMP INDA RSX EWZ - above all pivots

?s
EEM 2017 rising star above all pivots, but at YR1 resistance

* When leader holds, trend is usually alive.

As stated above, QQQ, VIX and XIV are saying green light for risk assets despite what other things you may see. And whether it has been Ebola, Grexit, Brexit or many others, when the leader holds the trend remains. Also, considering 2017 other performers global stocks are ALL above all pivots, I give edge to risk assets and not safe havens.

I thought there might be re-balancing out Q1 leader QQQ which is why I put on the hedge. So far still doing fine but if I take it off the exposure is a bit longer than I'd like considering the valid -s in play. Rather than another shuffle I'll just hold one more day.

SPY, QQQ, VIX below.