3/24/2016

Bullish action today, with SPY holding test of Q1P and recovering nicely on the short term 1H chart with a simple drop to WS1 that was bought. In addition, IWM recovered, RVX confirmed strength on IWM, TLT gave back gains, and oil could have been worse. 

As I said in the weekly strategy sum, idea was to play defense for a 1-2 day drop then see about next week. VIJ6 or VIX ETF nice gain. XLF short was a gain, IWM short chance for gain if you rotated to that, TLT question of entry. Seems that stock indexes mostly still bullish to me (remember, INDU leader and above all pivots so as long as that remains), so from here watching to see if SPX and NYA can get green on the year again, and especially action on Tech set (NDX COMPQ QQQ NQ) yearly pivots and NYA 1HP & YP. 

I think mostly long (via DIA and SOXX of course), maybe holding half the XLF shorts is a good place to be right now. But don't see much edge to holding recent IWM short given price action of today. TLT is a question of entry; not the best price action today either if playing the long side. And VIX trade should be out as there is just too much short term deterioration for that to hold given the response today. It did the job however. If holding EEM long then hedge with FXI short and we can see how Q2 moves. Given oil's rejection from Cl1 Q1P thought best to lock in most gains on oil or oil related ETFs EWZ & RSX, but perhaps some runner portions OK to hold above Q2P. GLD/GDX holding above MarP but any lower may force us out.

It is OK if you have some cash on the sideline as we head into Q2 as we will surely have new setups on those pivots soon enough.