3/22/2016

Markets continue in bullish fashion, maintaining gains and ignoring RSI overbought readings. We saw a minor fade from MarR2 on SPX as I pointed out was likely even in the bullish scenario in the weekly strategy sum: "Even if we get this, I'll be watching SPX / SPY / ES MarR2s for resistance" at SPX 2054, SPY 206.03 and ES 2056. High today SPX 2056 and a close below. 

I still think some 1-2 day drop is the more likely move, but so do a lot of other people if the ISEE reading closes where it was near 3:30 today. It was actually at a level more commonly found near major stock lows, not highs. 

If you took a DAX short based on MarR1 resistance then you saw it close fractionally above today for a quick cut. XLF looks like a maybe short, small position only if taking since there isn't any rejection yet. IBB out obviously. TLT, which I thought would bounce if stocks paused, did not meet criteria specified for the second day in a row. Sentiment seems quite bearish; stocks are strong; quarter end approaches. This is the recipe for a minor dip and another move up.

Still, the VIJ6 idea could work as long as it lifts up from 16.85. This is a situation similar to the ES short idea at 1988, although this situation officially "speculative" as we are buying support (ie, speculative buy = something below all pivots). Depending on your agility you can simply wait for a clear reversal and enter there, or watch the hourly chart and buy with any lift from the same level, or could have entered speculatively at the close today in smaller size with trade valid above 16.85 from here. Of course the more time passes the more volume will shift into the K contract with different levels.