Safe havens

Safe havens are echoing the move in stocks - risk on.

VIX just set new quarterly & monthly close lows according to TradingView data. XIV powering up above YR3 and previous highs, and now testing 2HR1 which is a level to watch for next week.

TLT failing below YP is a point for risk on. AGG is now testing its YP, so that's another level to watch for next week especially for those in rising rate camp and long financials. HYG looks fine.

GLD after looking so exciting with the breakout FAILED and back under the level. GDX was part of the clue, not breaking out above the early 2017 highs. SLV under all pivots with YP and 2HP rejection, and this was mentioned as a short idea in daily comments last week. The market may surprise me but if it does that is OK because cost will be minimal (barring nuclear explosion over the weekend but if that is a real worry i guess you should be in UVXY, SPY puts, GLD calls and cash). 

In some there was a case for top at SPX 2500 area if GLD maintained its breakout, TLT held its YP and XIV stopped at its YR3 and fell. But everything went the other way and bulls have the ball heading into seasonally strong Q4. 

Q: New quarterly close low. 
M: New monthly close low. 
W: Still above 7/17 close low 9.26 which according to my data is the all time weekly close low. 
W: Not sure we'll see that 2HS1 in the 8s. 

30 40 VIX Q.png
30 41 VIX M.png

M: Held rising 10MA on the low. Some RSI and BB divergence but higher close high is bullish. 
W: Potential RSI div setting up but above the prior close highs is bullish.
W: Above YR3, testing 2HR1. Interesting level to watch for next week.

30 45 XIV W.png

Q: Not terrible but below a falling 10MA.
M: Nearly 50% bounce from 2017H to 2016L.
W: Room to drop to lower BB area.
W: Two rally attempts above YP both failed. First time 2HP held as support. That is key area going forward. 

30 46 TLT Q.png
30 47 TLT M.png
30 48 TLT W.png

W: Testing YP, key level to watch next week.

W: doing fine. 

30 51 HYG W.png

Q: Did not clear falling 20MA despite the chance to do so.
M: Oops! to the longs. The 100MA resistance near top of BB was part of exit decision 9/11. 
W: Under breakout area is bearish. 
W: 2HR1 rejection.

30 53 GLD M.png
30 54 GLD W.png

W: 2HR1 rejection, testing 2HP. Lack of breakout here part of GLD exit decision.

30 56 GDX W.png

Hard to imagine a rebalance move into SLV for 2017 Q4 but market may surprise. Yup, i'm short based on 2HP and YP rejections.

30 57 SLV W.png