Often definitive moves begin near the end of quarters and beginning of new ones.

This is a list of a few recent examples - I can go on.

2017 Q2: TLT rally on 4/3, lifting above a QP for the first time in months; result was best move up for quite some time.

2017 Q1: USA indexes opening above all pivots despite mild pullback into year end; result melt up for Q1.

2016 Q4: While stocks had a bit of a pullback before the election, TLT and GLD both going straight down with TLT Q4P rejection on 10/3 (first day of quarter) and GLD a gap down; a lot more to this move.

2016 Q3: Indexes back above pivots from the Brexit test; 4 of 5 USA main indexes back above all pivots on 7/1 after just recently testing major levels (SPY, DIA, QQQ, and VTI YPs); result huge rally for the quarter.

Etc.

So what are we seeing thus far?

Most stocks have had a mild choppy pullback. VIX perked up then dropped. While it is certainly possible that VIX may continue higher in Q3, the real definitive move has been longer during interest rates up, ie TLT down, and GLD down.

Despite rising rate fears, I think this is bullish for stocks. A flattening yield curve would be much worse. Stocks may drop on rising rates at some point, but when rates are sideways for 6 months you cannot really say the pace is too fast. So if safe havens are dropping hard, I'm considering a more bullish move for stocks ahead.

TLT & AGG below all pivots after 7/7 close
GLD below 2HP for the first time in months and just a bit above YP
Meanwhile stock indexes seem to have normal pullbacks in uptrends