Valuation and fundamentals

Earnings estimates according to Thomson Reuters are starting to level out. 

Here is the 10 period moving average of the raw earnings estimate itself.

Multiply this by 18 and you get implied 18x forward earnings for SPX. Same slope.

And here is how SPX has reacted to this valuation level.

The level was tagged on 3/1 highs, but did not exceed on weekly close. 

Basically, 18x forward earnings as stopped the rally; and of more concern, earnings estimates are starting to flatline. This increases the chance of a range or drop going forward. Because the 10MA level of 18x forward earnings was lower than last week, I'm giving valuation score a -1.


Citigroup Economic Surprise Index dropping from a high level. Still decent, but not the same as going up. This gets a 3.

Combined total on scale of -5 to 5 = 1. Not impressive but still positive.