Safe havens

Once again VIX and XIV providing very reliable clues for risk. XIV dove off cliff but bungee jumped back to close above all pivots on 12/1, and remained above all pivots this week with near test of DecP. VIX above a monthly pivot on close for 1 day this month 12/4; back under 12/5 and convincing drop from Q4P and back below DecP 12/6.

TLT made a move above its YP but AGG remains weak. Metals trading very weak with SLV under all pivots 11/29 and the easy short trade. 

While some stock indexes are near big levels, with most safe havens supportive of risk assets have to say stocks higher is the more likely outcome for next week. That will be even more the case of TLT drops under its YP. HYG being ignored for now - maybe because these cos in debt will have a tax break soon? 

W: Several tests of 2HP, but last close above was mid August.
D: Crystal clear VIX pivot rejection (& stock buy / short cover) on 12/6. 

9 20 VIX W.png

W: Potential rejection of 2HR2, but came back.
D: Daily held above all pivots on 12/1, and 12/6 also near test of DecP held. 

9 22 XIV W.png

Still above YP but highs did not reach the Q4R1 level. 

2HP low, YP high twice in Dec so far. Bearish for AGG when YP acts as clear resistance.

9 25 AGG D.png

Below 3 of 4 pivots not really confirming stock move. 

9 26 HYG D.png

After lots of chop a decent drop under Q4P. Low DecS2 so far.

9 28 GDX D.png

The easier short - under Q4P since 10/23; 3rd rejection of 2HP was the charm. YP level to watch. 

9 28 GDX D.png

The even easier short under all pivots from 11/29.