In a series, check the tag. Last post mid February 2017. Though I shifted somewhat defensive late July as well.
Bottom line is some pause developing which I think will lead to some mild drop instead of SPX immediately powering up through YR2. But I also think this high likely to be tested, and DIA will have have to have some negative development, before a larger decline.
1) Multiple USA mains on major pivot resistance, then rejection? (ps: Long term pivots count more for turns.)
SPX/SPY YR2 rejection
NDX/QQQ Q4R1 rejection
RUT/IWM YR1 near tag and rejection
INDU/DIA current leader soared above levels
NYA and VTI also not really any definitive move
2) VIX and XIV confirmation?
VIX 2 days above a monthly pivot; needs to stay above for any real sell-off
XIV 2 days under 2HR
3) Other technicals like RSI overbought and/or divergence, or higher timeframe issues?
Most indexes overbought across timeframes, but no divergence suggests pause and mild drop then test.
4) High tested with at least one lower high?
No for INDU and SPX; Yes for NDX and RUT
5) Safe havens showing concern?
Safe havens weaker (though possible to have drop in stocks in rising rate environment, ie TLT and GLD also down)
6) Breadth, volume, advancing volume vs declining volume, new high / new low, MCO (McClellan Oscillator) concerns?
Breadth OK. Volume diminishing on SPY weekly chart. Adv Dec volume turning negative. NHNL incredibly strong in Sept & Oct, started to turn a bit around 10/16. MCO negative from 10/17. Some concern here.
7) Sentiment extremes reached?
Not so much yet on measures that I track - put/call, ISEE, AAII, NAAIM. There are others such as Investors Intelligence and CNN Money's fear/greed index.
8) Valuation concerns? Fundamentals weaker?
Valuation yes, above 18X only makes sense if market is really pricing in corporate tax cut.
10/23-26 stronger than most.
10/24 also symmetry time target on INDU and SPX